EIA's AEO2017 Projects the United States As a Net Energy Exporter in Most Cases

Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017), released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2050 based on eight cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, Low and High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology, No Clean Power Plan implementation). This is the first time that EIA is publishing projections through 2050 in the AEO tables.

The United States becomes a net energy exporter in most AEO2017 cases as petroleum liquid imports fall and natural gas exports rise. Exports are highest, and grow throughout the projection period, in the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, as favorable geology and technological developments combine to produce oil and gas at lower prices. The High Oil Price case provides favorable economic conditions for producers while restraining domestic consumption, enabling the most rapid transition to net exporter status. In all cases but the High Oil and Gas Resource Technology case, which assumes substantial improvements in production technology and more favorable resource availability, U.S. production declines in the 2030s, which slows or reverses projected growth in net energy exports.

"EIA’s projections show how advances in technology are driving oil and natural gas production, renewables penetration, and demand-side efficiencies and reshaping the energy future," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "The variation across the analysis cases of projected net energy export levels—as well as other findings in AEO2017— demonstrates the importance of considering the full set of AEO cases.”

Alternative cases incorporate different key assumptions, reflecting market, technology, resource, and policy uncertainties that may affect future energy markets.