Junex inc. welcomes the Quebec Government' decision to grant the required Certificates of Authorization to Anticosti Hydrocarbons LP ( "the Consortium") for the drilling and fracturing of three horizontal wells to evaluate the oil and gas potential of the Macasty Shale on Anticosti Island.
While not part of the Consortium, Junex holds the neighbouring block of exploration permits at 100%. Junex's permits cover an area of 233,275 acres (364 square miles or 944 square kilometers) in the deeper part of the Fairway where Junex is of the opinion that the ideal commercial conditions exist for oil and liquid hydrocarbon development in the Macasty Shale.
Publicly-available maps showing the locations of the stratigraphic coreholes drilled by neighboring acreage holders to date and their planned wells indicate that these have been and/or will be situated near Junex's permits. If the operations planned by Junex's neighbours would be successfully completed, then this exploration campaign should largely "de-risk" and add value to Junex's acreage without necessitating any investment of capital or dilution of interest on Junex's part.
In addition to the Macasty Shale, the deeper sedimentary sequences on Junex's acreage are quite prospective for conventional oil resources that would not require massive hydraulic fracture stimulation. Several seismically-defined drilling targets have been identified within the Trenton Black River Formations, which is a prolific producer in the Appalachian basin in the United States.
In 2011, Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc., ("NSAI"), a firm of worldwide petroleum consultants based in Texas, provided their Best Estimate (P50) of the Undiscovered shale oil initially-in-place volume for the Macasty Shale on Junex's Anticosti Island permits at 12.2 billion barrels (see Junex's press release from September 28, 2011 for more details).
Results from the NSAI Report
NSAI, a world renowned independent reservoir engineering firm, was commissioned by Junex to conduct a resource assessment ("the Report") of the undiscovered petroleum initially-in-place (OIIP) to Junex's interest in the Macasty Shale on its acreage on Anticosti Island in Quebec. Using their expertise in evaluating other shale resource plays, NSAI 's evaluation includes detailed analysis of well data including a review of the core & lab analysis data, as well as 2D seismic data & mapping. All results have been prepared in accordance with the regulations pursuant to National Instrument 51-101, Standards for Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities of the Canadian Securities Administrators.
Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of oil and natural gas and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as of a given date, and are classified according to their degree of certainty associated with the estimates.
Proved reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
Discovered resources oil-initially-in-place (OIIP) volumes are those quantities of petroleum that are estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production.
Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum that are estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but for which the applied project or projects are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development because of one or more contingencies.
There is uncertainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the sub-commercial discovered resources, if ascribed.
Undiscovered resources OIIP volumes are those quantities of petroleum that are estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in accumulations yet to be discovered.
Prospective resources are those quantities of petroleum that are estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Unrisked prospective resources are estimated ranges of recoverable oil volumes assuming a petroleum discovery is made and are based on estimated ranges of undiscovered in-place volumes.
There is no certainty that any portion of the undiscovered resources will be discovered, and, if discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of this category of resources.
Reserves, contingent resources, and prospective resources should not be combined without recognition of the significant differences in the criteria associated with their classification. However, in some instances (e.g., basin potential studies) it may be desirable to refer to certain subsets of total OIIP. For such purposes the term "resources" should include clarifying adjectives "remaining" and "recoverable," as appropriate. For example, the sum of reserves, contingent and prospective resources estimates involve additional risks, specifically the risk of not achieving commerciality and exploration risk, respectively, not applicable to reserves estimates. Therefore, when resources categories are combined, it is important that each component of the summation also be provided, and it should be made clear whether and how the components in the summation were adjusted for risk.
No quantitative geologic risk assessment was conducted by NSAI for this acreage. Geologic risking of prospective resources addresses the probability of success for the discovery of petroleum volumes and without regard to the chance of development; this risk analysis is conducted independently of probabilistic estimates of petroleum volumes and without regard to the chance of development. Principal risk elements of the petroleum system include (1) trap and seal characteristics; (2) reservoir presence and quality; (3) source rock capacity, quality, and maturity; and (4) timing, migration, and preservation of petroleum in relation to trap and seal formation.
The resources evaluated in the Report were determined from a range of possible values for multiple parameters. These parameters were limited to the critical driving factors for both statistical and practical reasons. The range and number of parameters rely on the available direct and analog data from similar reservoirs in a more mature development stage. It will be necessary to revise these estimates as additional data become available. Also, estimates of resources may increase or decrease as a result of future operations.
The probabilistic analysis performed by NSAI created cumulative probability distribution curves that defined a range of potential outcomes. As described in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (COGEH), the resulting probability distribution curves represent the low estimate, best estimate, and high estimate, which correspond to the P90, P50, and P10 probability estimates of hydrocarbon volumes, respectively. The probability that the quantities of oil actually in place will equal or exceed the estimated amounts is 90 percent for the low estimate, 50 percent for the best estimate, and 10 percent for the high estimate.
With respect to the Anticosti project, no estimates have been made as to the total cost required to achieve commercial production, there is no estimate as to the specific timeline of the entire project nor as to the estimated date of first commercial production, the anticipated recovery technology is anticipated to be from primary oil production following fracture stimulation, and no operations are currently underway on the project.
Source: Junex inc.
Date: Jun 16, 2016